Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20d4…74da
sports · 5 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$354 +45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open +$511
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$985
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$511
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage104d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 20¢ 100¢ $100 $508 +$408 (+408%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 26¢ 48¢ $190 $351 +$161 (+85%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 20¢ $184 $126 −$58 (-32%)
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 03 $135 −$135 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $148 −$13 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% +$569
world 36% −$148
other 24% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 6m
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $188 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $204 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? BUY Yes 42¢ $135 102d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $135 102d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $148 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 -54.3% -58.7% 0% 0% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.7% 0% -56.8%
10% -62.6% 0% -60.9%
15% -66.3% 0% -64.7%
20% -69.6% 0% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $984.76 · official $908.03 · 7 history records