Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20d1…75db
crypto · 1718 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$189 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$187 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1521 / 192
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1713 / 1718
History coverage27d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day71.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 1713 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$15
14 days−$131
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 78¢ 32¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) M80 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$182
sports 0% −$2
other 0% −$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +5.2% -4.8% 53% 51% -14.8%
≤30d 1713 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 1713 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 5% -10.2%
all 1713 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 5% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 5% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 4% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.96 · official $7.96 (match) · 3500 history records