Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x20d1…bc47 crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 414d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%94W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$269
14 days−$269
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$143
crypto 40% −$98
other 8% −$32
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -53.0% -57.5% 24% 21% -40.1%
≤30d 64 -47.7% -52.6% 27% 23% -13.2%
≤90d 74 -29.9% -36.6% 36% 34% -8.1%
all 170 -11.1% -19.5% 55% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -9.1%
10% -27.2% 34% -17.8%
15% -34.3% 25% -25.7%
20% -40.7% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

414d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses94 / 76
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage414d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $34 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$8 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$14 -54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $60 −$34 -57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 +$5 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$8 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $54 +$26 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$3 +18%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 17? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$8 -29%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$12 -76%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $5 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $12 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $26 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $60 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $50 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $12 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $12 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $4 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $80 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 76¢ $80 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $54 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $52 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $40 2d
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 512 history records