Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20cb…d211 sports 274 markets active 6d ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49,112 (-11%) realized −$49,112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%186W / 88L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,665per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1,088est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,459
14 days−$1,998
30 days−$1,841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,279
other 46% −$50,591
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -56.8% -60.9% 40% 20% -47.2%
≤30d 19 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 47% -19.6%
≤90d 181 -20.5% -28.0% 53% 40% -47.9%
all 274 -5.4% -14.4% 68% 52% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 52% -19.3%
10% -22.6% 32% -27.1%
15% -30.1% 20% -34.1%
20% -36.9% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,372) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$1,216 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49,112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses186 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1,088
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1,665
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $2,491 −$2,470 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $2,369 +$121 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,130 +$230 +11%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $995 −$980 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $363 −$360 -99%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $11 −$6 -55%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $9 +$6 +70%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $10 +$3 +34%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $2,600 +$703 +27%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $170 +$130 +76%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $83 −$82 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,459 +$273 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2,033 +$433 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $16 −$16 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $7 +$9 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $932 −$225 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $194 +$512 +264%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Hsieh/Wang May 29 $196 +$4 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $127 −$126 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $678 −$675 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $621 +$55 +9%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson May 17 $161 −$159 -99%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $716 +$68 +10%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $576 +$140 +24%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) May 15 $157 +$100 +64%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $262 +$57 +22%
Martin Landaluce vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 14 $167 +$95 +57%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $1,298 −$1,273 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $1,251 +$49 +4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $1,022 +$98 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $890 +$229 +26%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Khachanov May 13 $64 +$25 +40%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5) May 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Pegula vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5 May 13 $97 −$96 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $2,427 +$1,608 +66%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 12 $3,794 −$3,779 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko May 12 $1,749 +$1,139 +65%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud May 12 $1,593 +$141 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova May 11 $1,678 +$137 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elise Mertens vs Mirra Andreeva May 11 $589 +$210 +36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $95 −$94 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 09 $2,973 −$2,960 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $62 +$311 +504%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $4,171 −$4,150 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $4,172 +$386 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev May 08 $3,600 +$256 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $1,101 +$82 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova May 07 $1,032 +$64 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 71¢ $2,491 5d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Barbora Krejcikova 95¢ $2,369 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $2,130 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 49¢ $746 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 49¢ $249 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 72¢ $363 6d
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan SELL Tereza Martincova 10¢ $5 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 32¢ $16 7d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche SELL Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 46¢ $14 7d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 33¢ $10 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 18¢ $9 7d
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan BUY Tereza Martincova 21¢ $11 7d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 83¢ $3,303 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $37 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $1,495 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $9 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $480 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $9 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $557 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $3 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $5 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $2 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 65¢ $3 8d
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler BUY Karolina Pliskova 56¢ $170 9d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 41¢ $83 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 90¢ $2,459 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 82¢ $2,033 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 38¢ $16 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 46¢ $7 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda BUY Francisco Cerundolo 75¢ $227 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1159 history records