Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

20 0x20ca…8f0d other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$212 (-15%) realized −$282 · open +$70

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day14.1pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-41.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	33%	-21.8%
≤30d	15	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	33%	-21.8%
≤90d	15	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	33%	-21.8%
all	15	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	33%	-21.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.7%	33%	-21.8%
10%	-47.3%	27%	-29.3%
15%	-52.4%	27%	-36.1%
20%	-57.1%	27%	-42.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late -55% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$37 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$360

Realized−$282

Unrealized+$70

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage2d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day14.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Under	74¢	99¢	$270	$360	+$90 (+33%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	Under	46¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$426	+$66	+15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$176	−$173	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$194	+$120	+62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$114	−$20	-17%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals	Jun 17	$18	+$13	+73%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$10	+$13	+124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+109%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	74¢	$80	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5	BUY Under	46¢	$20	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	74¢	$192	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	92¢	$492	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	79¢	$426	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	42¢	$99	22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	42¢	$77	22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$51	22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$51	22h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	22h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	22h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$15	22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	85¢	$314	23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	66¢	$93	23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	46¢	$94	23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$16	23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$34	23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$114	29h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	29h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	29h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals	BUY Washington Nationals	57¢	$18	44h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5	BUY Over	44¢	$10	44h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	44h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.60 · official $355.77 · 29 history records