Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20ca…04b5 sports 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$610 (-4%) realized −$575 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%152W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$632
crypto 11% +$5
other 7% −$17
world 0% −$22
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 240 -11.6% -20.0% 63% 34% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 34% -13.3%
10% -27.7% 25% -21.6%
15% -34.7% 18% -29.2%
20% -41.1% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$575
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses152 / 88
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)240 / 244
History coverage131d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Hamilton Tiger-Cats 58¢ 56¢ $121 $117 −$3 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 28¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 56¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 17 $117 +$16 +14%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $339 +$2 +0%
Miami Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Martina Trevisan Mar 16 $105 +$2 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner Mar 16 $111 −$5 -4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 Winner Mar 16 $29 −$7 -24%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Penn Quakers vs. Yale Bulldogs Mar 16 $140 +$163 +116%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $11 +$8 +71%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 $0 -18%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Mar 15 $27 +$4 +14%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Mar 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 15 $18 −$3 -17%
Spread: VCU Rams (-5.5) Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Gr Mar 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $14 +$10 +72%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Mar 15 $1 +$2 +203%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Irvine Anteaters Mar 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 15 $12 +$3 +28%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Mar 15 $2 +$2 +111%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $60 −$37 -61%
Red Wings vs. Stars Mar 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 15 $147 −$12 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Pr Mar 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 15 $137 −$5 -4%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 15 $93 −$15 -16%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Mar 15 $16 +$9 +59%
Rangers vs. Wild Mar 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Toledo Rockets vs. Akron Zips Mar 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Wichita State Shockers Mar 14 $0 $0 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 14 $111 +$2 +2%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 14 $14 +$4 +30%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 14 $130 $0 +0%
Charlotte 49ers vs. South Florida Bulls Mar 14 $129 +$2 +1%
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. VCU Rams Mar 14 $111 −$1 -1%
Nets vs. 76ers Mar 14 $141 +$1 +1%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Cal State Fullerton Titans vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Mar 14 $6 −$1 -16%
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs Mar 14 $67 −$50 -76%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $42 +$7 +17%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 14 $149 +$4 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $194 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 63¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 41¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 56¢ $10 1h
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats BUY Hamilton Tiger-Cats 58¢ $122 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win o BUY 44¢ $81 7h
Penguins vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 66¢ $147 94d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 95d
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 95d
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 95d
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 95d
Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $278 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $313 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 95d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 95d
Miami Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Martina Trevisan SELL Renata Zarazua 100¢ $107 95d
Miami Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Martina Trevisan BUY Renata Zarazua 99¢ $5 95d
Miami Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Martina Trevisan BUY Renata Zarazua 98¢ $100 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $107 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 Winner SELL G2 Esports 50¢ $22 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $208 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 99¢ $106 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 96¢ $100 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.52 · official $204.97 · 791 history records