Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
20 0x20c8…d999 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$145 (+58%) realized +$163 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +126% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip
Net edge+97%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$56
sports 23% +$139
world 10% −$13
crypto 6% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+104.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +126.2% +104.6% 67% 67% +95.8%
≤30d 12 +126.2% +104.6% 67% 67% +95.8%
≤90d 12 +126.2% +104.6% 67% 67% +95.8%
all 12 +126.2% +104.6% 67% 67% +95.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +104.6% 67% +95.8%
10% +85.0% 67% +77.0%
15% +67.2% 67% +59.9%
20% +50.8% 67% +44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +116% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +126% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late +118% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$10 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-14%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-51%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$43 +283%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$35 +287%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +247%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$18 +58%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 46m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.86 · official $71.86 (match) · 37 history records