Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x20c4…08f6 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$38 (+6%) realized +$34 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$61
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$83
world 27% −$27
sports 13% +$22
politics 5% −$16
finance 2% −$14
crypto 1% −$8
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +18.9% +7.6% 67% 33% +23.9%
≤90d 8 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 25% +9.4%
all 47 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 38% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 38% -3.8%
10% -23.3% 23% -13.0%
15% -30.7% 19% -21.4%
20% -37.5% 15% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage188d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $71 +$105 +149%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 28 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3 −$1 -33%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $18 −$7 -36%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $41 +$7 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 17 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 06 $4 +$6 +150%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 04 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $12 +$1 +11%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 19 $4 +$3 +74%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 04 $11 −$2 -20%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $2 $0 +14%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 30 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 22 $5 −$2 -50%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 20 $7 +$7 +104%
49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5 Jan 20 $12 +$11 +89%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 15 $2 $0 -15%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will WD-40 Company (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (Decemb Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jan 03 $2 $0 +8%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28) Dec 23 $1 $0 -4%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 23 $2 $0 +5%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $3 $0 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $2 $0 -0%
Chargers vs. Cowboys Dec 21 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $64 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $67 14h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 12d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 39¢ $71 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? BUY No 92¢ $65 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $3 32d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 32d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 32d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 59d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 59d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 71d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 85d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 80¢ $11 102d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 89¢ $13 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 105d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? BUY No 47¢ $14 113d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? SELL No 95¢ $10 113d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? BUY No 38¢ $4 115d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 115d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 115d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 82¢ $26 115d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 75¢ $24 117d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $26 128d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 128d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 99¢ $10 131d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 135d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 135d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.41 · official $131.41 (match) · 266 history records