Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x20c3…c5f1 world 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%35W / 65L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$31
politics 24% −$2
other 14% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 4% −$2
crypto 2% +$13
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 35 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 79 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 3% -9.2%
all 100 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses35 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 105
History coverage447d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+86%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $195 +$3 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $84 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $73 +$6 +8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $239 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $197 −$3 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $186 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $250 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $378 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $160 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $234 −$13 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $576 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $124 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $266 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $174 +$5 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $55 +$5 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $14 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $77 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $364 +$4 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $135 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $141 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $162 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $226 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $180 −$5 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $184 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $178 +$21 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $7 $0 +5%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $331 +$3 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $336 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $297 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $169 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $300 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 05 $159 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $146 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $191 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $218 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $217 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $218 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $156 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $198 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $198 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $165 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $38 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $118 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $44 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $74 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $49 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $88 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $65 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $62 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $64 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.52 · official $27.15 (match) · 453 history records