Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20bc…3533 other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,989 (+2%) realized +$2,987 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%39W / 118L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,061per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$28
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$79
other 32% +$151
sports 9% +$2,807
culture 8% −$12
world 4% −$30
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$134
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -9.8% -18.4% 6% 4% -7.6%
all 157 +2.2% -7.6% 25% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 10% -7.9%
10% -16.4% 9% -16.7%
15% -24.5% 9% -24.8%
20% -31.9% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,512) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$6 · ×14.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.02 per $1 lost it wins $5.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized+$2,987
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses39 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,061
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $379 $379 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $282 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,354 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,919 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $3,614 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $919 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5,861 −$6 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $53 +$42 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $75 +$52 +70%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,217 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $329 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $477 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,512 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $368 $0 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $917 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $817 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $301 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,914 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,160 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $713 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $379 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 23h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $252 25h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $628 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $628 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $572 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $572 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $704 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $704 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $631 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $632 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $595 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $596 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $634 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $635 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $646 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $647 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $559 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $559 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $282 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $836 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $837 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $864 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $865 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $661 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $662 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $917 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $919 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $782 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $663.63 · official $663.63 (match) · 500 history records