Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x20ba…6c27 sports 1874 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,245 (-4%) realized −$25,066 · open −$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate69%1329W / 610L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$2,181est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 142d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$22,876
other 5% +$2,981
crypto 0% +$43
world 0% −$170
politics 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -41.0% -46.7% 41% 38% -62.1%
≤30d 409 -20.1% -27.7% 57% 49% -30.5%
≤90d 1364 -8.1% -16.8% 67% 56% -22.3%
all 1939 -5.3% -14.3% 69% 57% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 57% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -24.8%
15% -30.0% 24% -32.0%
20% -36.9% 13% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$341 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$762
Realized−$25,066
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1329 / 610
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2,181
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1939 / 1874
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$362
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1939 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jia-Jing Lu 59¢ 64¢ $455 $491 +$36 (+8%)
ITF Tokyo: Max Purcell vs Hikaru Shiraishi Max Purcell 86¢ 78¢ $299 $271 −$28 (-9%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Hanna Chang Hanna Chang 48¢ 0¢ $187 $0 −$187 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australian Open Men's: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez Jun 18 $667 −$667 -100%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Shuai Zhan Jun 18 $515 −$515 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Jun 18 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jun 18 $668 −$668 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Jun 18 $389 −$389 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Jun 18 $780 −$780 -100%
Raptors vs. Heat Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Kamil Majchrzak vs Quentin Haly Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Franco Parisi come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Julia Grabher vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 18 $608 −$608 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
ASB Classic, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Whitney Osuigwe Jun 18 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Jun 18 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Kast win by 20% to 25%? Jun 18 $2,380 −$2,380 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
ASB Classic: Sonay Kartal vs Janice Tjen Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
ASB Classic: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Peyton Stearns Jun 18 $397 −$397 -100%
Brisbane International: Marketa Vondrousova vs Magdalena Frech Jun 18 $517 −$517 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Rockets vs. Clippers Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 18 $1,441 −$1,441 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 18 $660 −$660 -100%
Steelers vs. Browns Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Hobart International: Katie Volynets vs Ann Li Jun 18 $512 −$512 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
ASB Classic: Ben Shelton vs Sebastian Baez Jun 18 $872 −$872 -100%
Hobart International: Iva Jovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Shuai Zhang vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $900 −$900 -100%
Brisbane International: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 18 $479 −$479 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 18 $330 −$330 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 18 $893 −$893 -100%
Hobart International: Taylah Preston vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 18 $393 −$393 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-10? Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Warriors vs. Raptors Jun 18 $199 −$199 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Guiomar Maristany vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 18 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Adelaide International: Tereza Valentova vs Madison Keys Jun 18 $730 −$730 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jun 18 $324 −$324 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Henrique Rocha vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Max Purcell vs Hikaru Shiraishi BUY Max Purcell 86¢ $300 5m
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 59¢ $460 6m
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Hanna Chang BUY Hanna Chang 48¢ $190 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $191 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 87¢ $167 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 100¢ $166 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 57¢ $96 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 25¢ $194 7h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 44¢ $272 8h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 61¢ $354 9h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 93¢ $355 9h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 95¢ $364 10h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 100¢ $363 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $331 10h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 55¢ $203 10h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $381 10h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 100¢ $154 10h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 86¢ $200 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $200 11h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 92¢ $138 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 84¢ $169 12h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 65¢ $101 12h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 100¢ $115 12h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $293 12h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 67¢ $198 13h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 87¢ $100 13h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 71¢ $140 13h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 77¢ $100 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 93¢ $200 17h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 81¢ $123 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $761.89 · official $761.89 (match) · 3500 history records