Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20b9…69e7
weather · 95 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$103 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses25 / 65
Open positions5
Markets (closed)90 / 95
History coverage64d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 48¢ 73¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 26? Apr 26 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 26? Apr 26 $1 +$2 +188%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25? Apr 26 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 25? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -92%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $7 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 24? Apr 25 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 24? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 24? Apr 24 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 24? Apr 24 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 24? Apr 24 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 24? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 24? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 23? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Apr 23 $8 −$3 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 23? Apr 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 23? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -65%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 16? Apr 17 $147 −$115 -79%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 16? Apr 16 $37 −$31 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 16? Apr 16 $23 −$8 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 16? Apr 16 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 16? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Apr 16 $38 +$35 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 16 $3 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? Apr 16 $44 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16? Apr 16 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 16? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16? Apr 16 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16? Apr 16 $3 −$2 -63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15? Apr 16 $39 +$15 +39%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15? Apr 15 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15 Apr 15 $5 −$3 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% −$80
crypto 6% −$20
tech 1% +$2
other 0% −$2
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -55.7% -59.9% 17% 17% -53.2%
≤30d 12 -55.7% -59.9% 17% 17% -53.2%
≤90d 90 -18.0% -25.9% 28% 28% -22.8%
all 90 -18.0% -25.9% 28% 28% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 28% -22.8%
10% -32.9% 23% -30.2%
15% -39.4% 20% -36.9%
20% -45.4% 17% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.95 (match) · 284 history records