Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

20 0x20b6…8591 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$76 (+32%) realized +$77 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip

Net edge+43%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown57%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+48.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+64.2%	+48.6%	40%	40%	+34.0%
≤30d	5	+64.2%	+48.6%	40%	40%	+34.0%
≤90d	5	+64.2%	+48.6%	40%	40%	+34.0%
all	5	+64.2%	+48.6%	40%	40%	+34.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+48.6%	40%	+34.0%
10%	+34.4%	40%	+21.2%
15%	+21.4%	40%	+9.5%
20%	+9.5%	40%	-1.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$84 vs −$32 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$79

Realized+$77

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage3d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown57%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$20	−$18	-90%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$31	+$75	+246%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$62	−$62	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$26	+$93	+365%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	14h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$15	26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$0	37h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$106	37h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$31	40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$62	45h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$26	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.51 · official $78.51 (match) · 13 history records