Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20b5…a3b5 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,064 (-11%) realized −$1,037 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$301
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$1,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$926
other 27% −$65
crypto 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 50% -16.0%
≤30d 39 -36.5% -42.5% 28% 28% -42.6%
≤90d 65 -22.0% -29.4% 35% 35% -19.2%
all 65 -22.0% -29.4% 35% 35% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 35% -19.2%
10% -36.1% 35% -27.0%
15% -42.3% 35% -34.0%
20% -48.0% 32% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$110 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$1,037
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 42
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage33d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$142 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $151 +$70 +46%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $152 +$163 +107%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$246 +121%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $93 −$91 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $406 −$400 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $17 +$14 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $305 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $76 −$75 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $26 −$26 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $47 −$46 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $71 +$48 +67%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $31 +$43 +139%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $26 +$52 +203%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 27 $122 −$122 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $49 −$48 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $74 −$73 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $254 −$249 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $203 +$174 +86%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $142 −$142 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $153 +$333 +217%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $102 +$214 +210%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $202 +$125 +62%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $180 +$87 +48%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $203 +$181 +89%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 17 $254 +$220 +87%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $152 +$142 +93%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $152 +$136 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 16 $147 +$90 +61%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $146 +$188 +128%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $81 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $222 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $151 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $316 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $450 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 22h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 22h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $153 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $93 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $406 2d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 18d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 41¢ $76 18d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 41¢ $26 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $47 19d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 40¢ $31 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 43¢ $61 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 38¢ $31 19d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 43¢ $25 20d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $73 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $71 20d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $31 20d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Aurora 99¢ $77 20d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 32¢ $26 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.80 · official $122.80 (match) · 114 history records