Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20b4…e8aa
world · 28 markets active 16h ago
0.0score
−$13,768 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,203 · open −$18,076
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55,070
Realized+$6,203
Unrealized−$18,076
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 28
History coverage119d
Avg bet$38,631
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,835
7 days−$2,835
14 days−$2,351
30 days−$9,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 98¢ $15,000 $29,505 +$14,505 (+97%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 56¢ $28,641 $25,070 −$3,571 (-12%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $15,000 $495 −$14,505 (-97%)
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Yes 49¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $636 $0 −$636 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 19? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $909 $0 −$909 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $898 $0 −$898 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $909 $0 −$909 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 19? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $909 $0 −$909 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 20? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 17? Jun 12 $636 −$849 -133%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on May 17? Jun 12 $909 −$909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 17? Jun 12 $909 −$909 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 17? Jun 12 $909 −$909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on May 17? Jun 12 $909 −$909 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on May 17? Jun 12 $909 −$909 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 17? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $20,776 +$2,569 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55,515 +$485 +1%
Will John Swinney be the next First Minister of Scotland following the May 26 $0 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 19? May 18 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C or higher on May 17? May 18 $141 −$772 -548%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 17? May 18 $61 −$876 -1427%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 17? May 18 $10,917 −$4,491 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 2°C or below on May 17? May 18 $955 −$376 -39%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 20? May 18 $5 −$2 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 17? May 18 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 17 $334 −$330 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026? May 06 $18 +$222 +1250%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $61,814 +$186 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $74,223 +$1,230 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 26 $20,782 +$10,056 +48%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $104 −$61 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 55% −$14,835
world 20% +$10,509
economics 12% +$3,672
other 6% +$222
crypto 5% +$485
weather 1% −$6,521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $293 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $5 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $2 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $268 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $140 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $38 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $702 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $50 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $414 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $338 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $50 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $57 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $1,445 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $1,210 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $216 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $825 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $290 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $146 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $590 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $1 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $50 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $118 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $1 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $541 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $682 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $46 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $403 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $3,301 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -96.6% -96.9% 3% 3% -16.6%
≤30d 44 -91.7% -92.5% 5% 2% -18.7%
≤90d 56 -48.9% -53.7% 21% 9% -8.5%
all 58 -47.1% -52.1% 22% 9% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.1% 9% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -56.7% 5% -17.1%
15% -60.9% 3% -25.1%
20% -64.7% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,069.51 · official $55,069.51 (match) · 1638 history records