Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x20b3…0e11 sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$351 (+9%) realized +$99 · open +$252
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%52W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$798
14 days+$716
30 days+$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$840
other 35% −$323
world 2% +$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 39% +53.0%
≤30d 41 -11.5% -19.9% 39% 34% +25.0%
≤90d 66 -4.2% -13.4% 42% 38% +4.6%
all 140 -14.4% -22.6% 37% 31% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 31% -3.0%
10% -30.0% 30% -12.3%
15% -36.8% 29% -20.8%
20% -43.0% 25% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$17 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$252
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses52 / 88
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 145
History coverage233d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Ireland 93¢ $25 $276 +$251 (+1005%)
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings Mi New York 59¢ 59¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 +$16 +65%
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $305 +$357 +117%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$29 +114%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$13 -50%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$12 -46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$180 +350%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $26 +$58 +226%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$15 -59%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 +$75 +294%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $102 +$161 +158%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $101 +$63 +62%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $106 −$5 -5%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$12 +17%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $203 +$52 +25%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $72 −$70 -98%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $10 +$19 +188%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $41 +$62 +152%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $31 +$63 +206%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $45 −$12 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland $26 1h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings BUY Mi New York 59¢ $101 8h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY Yes $5 14h
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 14h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes $10 30h
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $5 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 30h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 30¢ $102 37h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 41¢ $102 37h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL Texas Super Kings 38¢ $39 37h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 47¢ $51 37h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL San Francisco Unicorns 53¢ $43 37h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY 12¢ $5 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $25 2d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY $5 2d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 60¢ $51 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $10 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $25 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $25 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $25 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 69¢ $101 3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 20¢ $13 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL Scotland 21¢ $11 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 79¢ $231 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.69 · official $376.69 (match) · 238 history records