Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20b3…d24c world 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,496 (-17%) realized −$1,480 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days−$698
14 days−$705
30 days−$1,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$714
crypto 18% −$844
other 3% +$18
politics 1% −$41
sports 1% +$6
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 19% -21.0%
≤30d 47 -21.8% -29.2% 51% 17% -28.0%
≤90d 47 -21.8% -29.2% 51% 17% -28.0%
all 47 -21.8% -29.2% 51% 17% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 17% -28.0%
10% -36.0% 6% -34.9%
15% -42.2% 2% -41.2%
20% -47.9% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$91 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized−$1,480
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)47 / 61
History coverage17d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 75¢ 98¢ $150 $196 +$46 (+31%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 93¢ 85¢ $93 $85 −$8 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 39¢ 29¢ $110 $82 −$28 (-25%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $69 $72 +$2 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $58 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $24 $50 +$27 (+113%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $33 $28 −$6 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $14 $17 +$4 (+25%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+58%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 62¢ 6¢ $62 $6 −$55 (-90%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $100 +$44 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,649 +$247 +15%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $229 +$4 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $404 −$115 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $672 −$388 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$32 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $146 −$126 -87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $388 −$49 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $484 −$352 -73%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $57 −$8 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $706 +$122 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $74 +$9 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 +$4 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $62 −$21 -34%
Tucker Carlson federally charged? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $116 +$7 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $169 +$55 +32%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $86 −$1 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $69 +$6 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $270 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $28 −$9 -31%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 05 $15 −$1 -6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $127 +$3 +2%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $36 +$10 +29%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,437 −$797 -56%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 3m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 3m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 3m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $92 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 46¢ $144 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 32¢ $100 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $93 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 60¢ $30 16h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $69 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 63¢ $32 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,707 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.16 · official $669.95 · 322 history records