Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20af…2a89 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-13%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$76
other 4% $0
politics 2% −$10
sports 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 56% -21.7%
≤30d 36 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 56% -21.7%
≤90d 36 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 56% -21.7%
all 46 -7.1% -15.9% 59% 52% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 52% -22.0%
10% -24.0% 46% -29.5%
15% -31.3% 33% -36.3%
20% -38.0% 26% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage110d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +98%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. Panathinaikós AO: Both Teams to Score Feb 27 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 26 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Feb 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Feb 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Feb 25 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records