Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x20ad…307d sports 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,802 (-2%) realized −$2,792 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%309W / 390L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$413est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days+$1,263
14 days+$3,358
30 days+$3,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$2,226
crypto 9% −$4,038
other 7% −$1,187
politics 1% −$450
world 1% +$8
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 41% -3.4%
≤30d 168 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 46% -0.8%
≤90d 168 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 46% -0.8%
all 699 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 40% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 40% -11.5%
10% -28.0% 37% -19.9%
15% -35.0% 28% -27.7%
20% -41.3% 21% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$95 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,805
Realized−$2,792
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses309 / 390
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$413
Open positions6
Markets (closed)699 / 705
History coverage150d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 699 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $915 $910 −$5 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$25 -24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $605 −$59 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,082 +$78 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$16 -16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$91 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,091 +$316 +29%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 −$181 -60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$55 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $303 +$143 +47%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $253 +$114 +45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $757 +$159 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$62 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $495 −$238 -48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $286 −$35 -12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$4 -13%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$25 -24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$29 -29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$19 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 −$26 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$47 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$9 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $303 +$170 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $908 +$191 +21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$53 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $934 +$68 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $504 +$190 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $876 +$64 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,344 +$97 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$42 +41%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,477 −$33 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$8 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $916 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 27m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 41m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 42¢ $77 47m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $546 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,160 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,082 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $605 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $0 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $85 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $587 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $68 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,804.63 · official $1,804.63 (match) · 1900 history records