Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20ab…00cd crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+1%) realized +$138 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%51W / 2L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$32
other 26% +$50
tech 18% +$24
world 9% +$49
politics 6% −$60
economics 5% +$41
sports 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 12 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 8% -6.7%
all 53 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 8% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 8% -8.2%
10% -18.3% 4% -17.0%
15% -26.2% 4% -25.0%
20% -33.4% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$32 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses51 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage604d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $190 $192 +$2 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $180 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $210 +$4 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 03 $190 +$3 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $198 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $174 +$5 +3%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $180 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $202 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 28 $197 +$3 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $70 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 04 $210 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 04 $266 +$5 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 27 $180 +$34 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 04 $81 +$1 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $245 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 09 $211 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $280 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 27 $120 +$2 +1%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? Jan 27 $271 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15? Jan 10 $248 +$3 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 10 $250 +$2 +1%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 15 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 30 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 4? Nov 30 $90 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Nov 04 $469 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 11? Oct 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 25 $270 +$8 +3%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the UK state banquet on Se Oct 11 $220 +$2 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin September 9-15? Oct 11 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? Sep 15 $400 +$10 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 05 $440 +$4 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jul 13 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Jul 13 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen Sweeney win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May? Jun 04 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 11 $62 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 11 $59 +$39 +67%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 11 $280 +$1 +0%
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act signed into law by March 31? Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 06 $250 +$4 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 26 $90 +$5 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Mar 03 $118 +$1 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 03 $156 +$23 +14%
Will Ashton Jeanty win the Heisman Trophy? Jan 07 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 07 $160 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $214 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $180 14d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $190 14d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $210 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $190 46d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 99¢ $198 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $180 46d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $202 50d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $174 73d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 98¢ $197 73d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $180 73d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $210 82d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 97¢ $70 105d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $266 105d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $81 128d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 84¢ $180 128d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $245 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 99¢ $211 141d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $280 141d
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $271 158d
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese BUY No 100¢ $100 158d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $120 158d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15? BUY Yes 99¢ $248 184d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $250 184d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $200 199d
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 BUY Yes 99¢ $90 225d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 4? BUY Yes 97¢ $90 225d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 99¢ $300 225d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $469 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.46 · official $573.46 (match) · 111 history records