Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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20 0x20ab…a1f7 crypto 1727 markets active 5h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate87%1513W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
sports 0% −$3
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -2.2% -11.5% 85% 47% -11.4%
≤30d 446 -1.9% -11.2% 86% 49% -11.5%
≤90d 1125 -0.4% -9.9% 87% 54% -9.7%
all 1731 -0.4% -9.9% 87% 39% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 39% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1513 / 218
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1731 / 1727
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1731 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1988%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -3091%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1955%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $3 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 96¢ $3 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 92¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records