Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20aa…e26b
crypto · 635 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$637 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$604 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,276
Realized+$604
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses361 / 218
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions56
Markets (closed)579 / 635
History coverage40d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day78.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 56 History 579 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$1
14 days+$577
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $339 $345 +$6 (+2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $233 $230 −$4 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $165 $184 +$19 (+11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $172 $178 +$5 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $142 $167 +$25 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 73¢ 87¢ $110 $131 +$21 (+19%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $94 $106 +$12 (+13%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 65¢ $85 $92 +$7 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $86 $81 −$5 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $80 $69 −$11 (-13%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 49¢ 46¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $48 $43 −$5 (-10%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-21%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 95¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 59¢ 56¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-16%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 82¢ $27 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $17 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 13 $165 +$5 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $19 +$8 +43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +40%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 +$28 +132%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$29 +140%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $81 −$33 -41%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 08 $1 +$6 +499%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $8 +$17 +228%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $16 +$30 +192%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 $0 -9%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +11%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 07 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $268 +$27 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $38 +$6 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $43 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $190 −$6 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $267 +$354 +132%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $58 +$127 +218%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $82 +$9 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $182 +$41 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $171 −$35 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $41 +$7 +16%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $101 +$5 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 30 $757 +$109 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$377
world 10% +$305
other 8% −$195
politics 8% +$90
sports 6% +$4
tech 1% +$10
culture 0% +$12
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL Yes 98¢ $13 10m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 54m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $80 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 28¢ $30 3h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 66¢ $1 6h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 8h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 76¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $39 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $68 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 12h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 66¢ $0 12h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 66¢ $15 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 90¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.4% -2.9% 58% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 352 -6.3% -15.2% 54% 30% -6.7%
≤90d 579 +5.0% -5.0% 62% 29% -6.0%
all 579 +5.0% -5.0% 62% 29% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 29% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 19% -15.0%
15% -22.4% 14% -23.2%
20% -30.0% 12% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,275.84 · official $2,275.84 (match) · 3500 history records