Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x20aa…af59 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$755 (-50%) realized −$674 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.3% -38.7% 33% 33% -62.1%
≤30d 3 -32.3% -38.7% 33% 33% -62.1%
≤90d 3 -32.3% -38.7% 33% 33% -62.1%
all 3 -32.3% -38.7% 33% 33% -62.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 33% -62.1%
10% -44.6% 33% -65.7%
15% -49.9% 33% -69.0%
20% -54.9% 33% -72.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$482 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$674
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 49¢ 36¢ $292 $212 −$81 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $211 −$208 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $250 +$258 +103%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $767 −$755 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 49¢ $297 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 48¢ $203 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 44¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 35¢ $6 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $508 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 48¢ $250 3h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 48¢ $767 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.82 · official $355.02 · 7 history records