Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20a5…6a89 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 423d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$19
world 35% −$27
politics 9% $0
sports 7% −$9
crypto 5% +$5
tech 4% −$1
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +48.5% +34.4% 100% 100% +34.4%
≤30d 2 +50.4% +36.1% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤90d 13 -10.4% -19.0% 69% 38% -17.8%
all 34 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 29% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 29% -11.7%
10% -23.5% 24% -20.1%
15% -30.9% 24% -27.8%
20% -37.7% 18% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

423d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage423d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Curaçao 58¢ 57¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 25 $23 +$11 +48%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Jun 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $20 +$2 +9%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 23 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 04 $20 +$14 +72%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 15 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Mar 15 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Dec 25 $21 +$8 +40%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Dec 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? Dec 25 $3 +$5 +174%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 25 $11 $0 +2%
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22? Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? Oct 12 $12 +$11 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? May 01 $11 $0 -3%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 01 $24 $0 -2%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in April? May 01 $13 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 25–May 2? Apr 29 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $12 $0 +3%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? Apr 28 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $15 1h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro SELL Yes 89¢ $35 1h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 59¢ $23 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 43¢ $9 45d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 45d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes $0 55d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 62d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? BUY Up 85¢ $10 69d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 69d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $20 72d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $10 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 72d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 102d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 65¢ $20 102d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 102d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 135d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? BUY No 87¢ $20 135d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? BUY No 58¢ $20 135d
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $29 181d
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 84¢ $8 181d
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 181d
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? SELL No 42¢ $11 181d
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $5 194d
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? BUY No 41¢ $11 194d
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? BUY Yes $3 194d
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.67 · official $24.67 (match) · 68 history records