Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20a2…b929 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,941 (+15%) realized +$3,941 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate84%16W / 3L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$1,341per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$486
7 days+$4,579
14 days+$2,795
30 days+$2,795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$4,769
other 12% −$1,975
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 88% 56% +8.9%
≤30d 19 +3.4% -6.4% 84% 58% +0.4%
≤90d 19 +3.4% -6.4% 84% 58% +0.4%
all 19 +3.4% -6.4% 84% 58% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 58% +0.4%
10% -15.4% 37% -9.2%
15% -23.5% 16% -18.0%
20% -31.0% 11% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$424 vs −$1,332 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,341
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $1,004 +$146 +14%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $1,002 +$103 +10%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,002 +$83 +8%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $501 +$53 +11%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $503 +$114 +23%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $504 +$172 +34%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $503 +$126 +25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $503 +$145 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$20 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $998 +$520 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $9,984 +$4,830 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,000 −$1,995 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$31 +62%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $905 +$179 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1,004 13h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,002 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,074 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1,003 38h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,086 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1,002 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $555 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $501 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $503 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $504 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $630 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 79¢ $503 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $649 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $503 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,004 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,023 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,518 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $998 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14,814 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 67¢ $9,984 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,000 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 12d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $1,083 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 12d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 83¢ $905 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records