Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
20 0x209f…2337 sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,154 (+19%) realized +$1,301 · open −$147
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%37W / 22L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$661
14 days+$1,809
30 days+$2,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$2,322
other 35% +$48
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +132.3% +110.2% 86% 86% +107.2%
≤30d 59 +66.7% +50.8% 63% 63% +67.9%
≤90d 59 +66.7% +50.8% 63% 63% +67.9%
all 59 +66.7% +50.8% 63% 63% +67.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.8% 63% +67.9%
10% +36.4% 61% +51.9%
15% +23.2% 59% +37.2%
20% +11.1% 58% +23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$26 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized+$1,301
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses37 / 22
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 95
History coverage28d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $358 $387 +$29 (+8%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $236 $99 −$138 (-58%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Fr Jun 27 $100 +$195 +195%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will France win Jun 27 $50 +$146 +293%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) AND Spread Jun 26 $51 +$76 +150%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $41 +$43 +106%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will C Jun 24 $71 +$163 +229%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $154 +$83 +54%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Ecu Jun 21 $51 +$228 +445%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $305 +$324 +106%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $51 +$149 +292%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Eng Jun 18 $41 +$267 +650%
Austria leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$50 +164%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$54 +88%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$59 +228%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $102 +$134 +131%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$92 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$70 -69%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $234 +$358 +154%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$43 +28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$20 -64%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$25 +122%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $51 +$27 +53%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $120 +$104 +87%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $26 +$14 +54%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$11 +61%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $126 −$2 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $32 −$22 -69%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $33 +$76 +227%
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 +$24 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Fr BUY 33¢ $100 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026- BUY $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 AND No BUY 27¢ $50 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will France win BUY 25¢ $50 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 11¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 35¢ $42 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 48¢ $41 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 19¢ $31 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) AND Spread BUY 39¢ $51 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 14¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY $17 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 26¢ $82 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 33¢ $102 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND Will Bosnia and H BUY 34¢ $40 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U BUY 30¢ $41 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in BUY 17¢ $31 4d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 39¢ $71 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (- BUY 16¢ $51 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $55 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $47 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.74 · official $546.74 (match) · 245 history records