Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x209c…d319 other 399 markets active 462d ago coverage 408d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 408d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$71,011 (+4%) realized +$71,011 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate43%171W / 228L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$4,343per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 408d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$35,002
other 35% +$12,974
crypto 18% +$35,246
world 5% +$6,340
tech 2% −$2,009
sports 2% −$5,788
economics 1% +$1,721
culture 0% −$538
weather 0% +$13,258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 399 +13.7% +2.9% 43% 26% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 26% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 21% -17.0%
15% -16.0% 16% -25.0%
20% -24.2% 14% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,819) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$878 vs −$571 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71,011
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses171 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)399 / 399
History coverage408d ⚠
Avg bet$4,343
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 399 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jun 20 $18,320 −$7,939 -43%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Jun 20 $30,006 +$5,563 +18%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? Mar 06 $6,651 +$19,565 +294%
Will Trump and Elon say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their Feb 18 inte Feb 21 $10,683 +$1,488 +14%
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? Feb 21 $231,701 +$332 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 20 $258,805 −$1,441 -1%
Will Trump and Elon say "DOGE" 3 or more times during their Feb 18 int Feb 20 $9,067 +$1,116 +12%
Will Trump and Elon say "COVID" during their Feb 18 interview? Feb 20 $15,892 +$185 +1%
Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 Feb 20 $52,427 +$3,840 +7%
Will Trump and Elon say "Kickback" during their Feb 18 interview? Feb 20 $97,999 +$2,000 +2%
Will Trump and Elon say "trans" or "transgender during their Feb 18 in Feb 20 $100,927 +$1,194 +1%
OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024? Feb 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Nati Feb 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Feb 17 $146 +$10 +7%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Feb 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Feb 17 $1,786 −$682 -38%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Feb 17 $62 +$62 +100%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Feb 17 $11,364 −$109 -1%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 17 $122,877 +$6,690 +5%
Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year? Feb 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 17 $2,216 +$431 +19%
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? Feb 17 $10,558 +$271 +3%
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? Feb 17 $10,900 +$1,806 +17%
Will Dave Portnoy launch a coin before March? Feb 17 $41,337 +$1,241 +3%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 06 $4,231 +$362 +9%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $681 −$366 -54%
Is John McAfee alive? Sep 10 $2,220 −$98 -4%
Will Kraken IPO by June? Sep 08 $409 −$158 -39%
GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024? Sep 08 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Peter play Thursday? - Million Dollar Game Day 3 Sep 08 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Andrew Tate launch a pump.fun coin by Friday? Sep 08 $43 −$43 -100%
Blast airdrop by June 30? Sep 08 $211 −$10 -5%
Base airdrop by June 30? Jun 27 $20 −$2 -12%
EigenLayer airdrop by June 30? Jun 27 $879 −$238 -27%
Pump.fun announces legal action against stacc in May? Jun 08 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Roaring Kitty tweet on Monday? Jun 08 $225 −$225 -100%
Alan Keating VPIP above 70%? - Million Dollar Game Day 4 Jun 08 $443 −$443 -100%
Roaring Kitty livestream by next Friday? Jun 08 $110 +$490 +443%
Andrew Tate >10 tweets with n-word by Sunday night? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Fed rate cut by November 7? Jun 06 $18 +$7 +37%
Swell airdrop by June 30? Jun 06 $26 +$95 +367%
Will Trump mention $MAGA before Election? Jun 05 $1,573 +$11 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $570 −$232 -41%
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked? Jun 01 $0 $0 -33%
Did Keith Gill (RoaringKitty) sell his X account? Jun 01 $63 +$162 +257%
Ilya doesn't announce plans by May 31? Jun 01 $291 +$43 +15%
Bryan Johnson's functional sperm above 20.0 M/ejac on next test? May 30 $2,336 −$515 -22%
Trump found guilty in hush money case? May 30 $859 +$286 +33%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June? May 30 $225 −$128 -57%
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? May 30 $6,221 +$127 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? SELL No 96¢ $9,464 461d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL Yes 33¢ $1,271 461d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL Yes 50¢ $586 472d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? SELL No 89¢ $8,158 484d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL No 65¢ $142,929 486d
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $53,769 486d
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,495 486d
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $43,536 486d
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $80,265 486d
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $19,635 486d
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $32,001 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 64¢ $6,199 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 64¢ $9,468 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 64¢ $921 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL No 69¢ $3 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 65¢ $17,385 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL No 71¢ $142 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? SELL No 71¢ $284 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 68¢ $14,392 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 68¢ $28 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 68¢ $692 486d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY No 64¢ $11,705 486d
Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 BUY Yes 100¢ $7,743 486d
Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 BUY Yes 100¢ $24,950 486d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL Yes 72¢ $1,324 486d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL Yes 72¢ $6,947 486d
Will Trump and Elon say "COVID" during their Feb 18 interview? BUY Yes 99¢ $15,892 486d
Will Trump and Elon say "trans" or "transgender during their Feb 18 in BUY Yes 99¢ $100,729 486d
Will Trump and Elon say "Kickback" during their Feb 18 interview? BUY Yes 98¢ $97,999 486d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 486d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records