Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:11:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x209b…5706 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 156d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,502 (-3%) realized −$15,747 · open −$755
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%60W / 89L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,041per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$702est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$20,901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$25,420
sports 34% −$45,744
crypto 2% −$11,522
world 1% +$4,140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -33.3% -39.6% 29% 29% -12.5%
≤30d 58 -30.2% -36.9% 31% 31% -14.2%
≤90d 58 -30.2% -36.9% 31% 31% -14.2%
all 149 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 39% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 39% -15.4%
10% -28.0% 37% -23.5%
15% ← realistic here -34.9% 36% -30.9%
20% -41.3% 32% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$4,720) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
24.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,002 vs −$3,101 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$20,901
Realized−$15,747
Unrealized−$755
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses60 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$702
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 139
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$4,041
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 72¢ 69¢ $21,656 $20,901 −$755 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 28 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 28 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jun 28 $2,127 −$2,127 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-16? Jun 28 $768 −$768 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-16? Jun 28 $204 −$204 -100%
Avalanche vs. Lightning Jun 28 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-15? Jun 28 $596 −$596 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-14? Jun 28 $641 −$641 -100%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jun 28 $646 −$646 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-18? Jun 28 $502 −$502 -100%
Utah vs. Rangers Jun 28 $480 −$480 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $916 −$900 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $7,012 −$7,012 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4,699 −$4,699 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12,128 +$7,754 +64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6,300 +$3,700 +59%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5,179 −$5,179 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7,396 +$8,682 +117%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11,321 +$6,938 +61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7,791 +$8,142 +104%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2,030 +$4,970 +245%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,346 +$10,332 +193%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17,718 −$17,718 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $369 −$369 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,603 −$2,603 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,179 −$1,150 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,741 −$4,720 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22,950 +$4,050 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5,289 −$5,289 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9,584 −$9,581 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7,600 −$3,871 -51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6,985 +$15,155 +217%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,000 +$7,000 +233%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11,400 +$8,600 +75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6,720 −$6,720 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11,522 −$11,522 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,368 +$3,874 +89%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,498 −$2,498 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,491 −$8,491 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23,945 +$3,789 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,629 +$3,871 +238%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9,340 +$24,511 +262%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,182 −$1,155 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3,816 −$3,766 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,122 −$4,122 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $152 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $11 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $8,775 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $14 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $58 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $144 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $324 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $50 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $132 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $12 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $257 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $22 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $49 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $1,029 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $12 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $134 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $105 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $8 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $7 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,901.06 · official $21,806.40 · 3500 history records