Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x209a…6e2e other 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%18W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$4
other 25% −$5
politics 21% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
economics 9% −$1
culture 5% −$1
world 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 178 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses18 / 160
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage159d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $36 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 25 $61 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $179 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 27 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $37 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 25 $70 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 24 $171 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $64 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 8h
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $35 7d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 16d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 16d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $29 23d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 23d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 30d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 31d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 79d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $39 79d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $35 79d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $35 79d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $30 79d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $30 80d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 80d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 80d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 94¢ $33 80d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $33 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL No 96¢ $27 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 95¢ $27 81d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 81d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 81d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $35 81d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $35 81d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 81d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 81d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $35 81d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $35 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 656 history records