Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
20 0x209a…580e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$115 (+17%) realized +$117 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$112
crypto 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +52.5% +38.0% 100% 78% +13.5%
≤30d 9 +52.5% +38.0% 100% 78% +13.5%
≤90d 9 +52.5% +38.0% 100% 78% +13.5%
all 9 +52.5% +38.0% 100% 78% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.0% 78% +13.5%
10% +24.8% 56% +2.7%
15% +12.7% 56% -7.2%
20% +1.7% 44% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$6 +140%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $131 +$47 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $141 +$28 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $131 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $141 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY 6¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.30 · official $198.30 (match) · 22 history records