Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208f…9f4c sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$17
crypto 12% −$14
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +65.6% +49.8% 48% 48% -9.7%
≤30d 29 +65.6% +49.8% 48% 48% -9.7%
≤90d 29 +65.6% +49.8% 48% 48% -9.7%
all 29 +65.6% +49.8% 48% 48% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.8% 48% -9.7%
10% +35.5% 48% -18.3%
15% +22.4% 48% -26.2%
20% +10.4% 38% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +150% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)29 / 38
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+243%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 +$14 +152%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$6 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +374%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 32m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 53¢ $10 40m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 46m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 47m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $10 47m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $9 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 19h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $9 19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 65¢ $9 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 19h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 53¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 56¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 32¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.96 · official $46.96 (match) · 56 history records