Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208f…e518 world 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 22% +$1
sports 15% −$12
politics 13% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 21 -0.0% -9.5% 52% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 63 -1.8% -11.1% 35% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage491d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 60¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$2 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $60 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $78 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $17 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $76 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $55 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $60 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $44 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $31 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $73 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $7 $0 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $42 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $26 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $84 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $7 $0 -2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $2 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $39 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $3 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $19 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $15 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $15 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $35 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $3 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.14 · official $40.73 · 311 history records