Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208f…b41f sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$411 (-9%) realized −$535 · open +$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$238
14 days−$454
30 days−$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$654
sports 23% +$311
politics 2% $0
world 1% +$5
finance 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$12
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 33% +17.0%
≤30d 36 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 28% -20.1%
≤90d 40 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 25% -20.5%
all 49 -9.7% -18.3% 33% 22% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 22% -19.5%
10% -26.1% 20% -27.2%
15% -33.3% 20% -34.2%
20% -39.8% 20% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$35 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$535
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage557d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 30¢ 96¢ $30 $96 +$66 (+220%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 92¢ $36 $94 +$58 (+161%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 −$2 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$67 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$37 +72%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$20 -66%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$16 -21%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $31 −$29 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $31 −$21 -70%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $21 −$19 -92%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$12 -80%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$14 -88%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$9 -43%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$63 +204%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$50 +90%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -71%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$74 +206%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -92%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$81 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 +$5 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 +$78 +253%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 +$63 +156%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $741 −$351 -47%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $60 −$2 -3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $460 −$62 -14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $952 −$277 -29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $765 +$13 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $22 +$2 +7%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Apr 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 1 Dec 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 23 $92 −$5 -6%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Dec 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $53 $0 +1%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? Dec 11 $10 −$5 -50%
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense? Dec 11 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $37 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $18 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $108 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 30¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $20 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) SELL Switzerland 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 20¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 21¢ $10 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $41 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 5h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 9¢ $11 5h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 25¢ $31 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 19h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 1¢ $1 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $9 19h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 19h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 19h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) SELL Colombia 1¢ $2 19h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $47 20h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $31 21h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Colombia 12¢ $21 21h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $31 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $34 32h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $32 32h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 10¢ $6 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 41h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 15¢ $10 41h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 3¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.11 · official $190.11 (match) · 220 history records