Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208e…df19 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$315 (-18%) realized −$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$162
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$180
other 13% −$166
crypto 12% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 47% -19.7%
≤30d 48 -14.2% -22.4% 48% 48% -16.5%
≤90d 50 -17.6% -25.5% 46% 46% -26.3%
all 50 -17.6% -25.5% 46% 46% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 46% -26.3%
10% -32.6% 46% -33.4%
15% -39.1% 44% -39.8%
20% -45.1% 34% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage53d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$50 +50%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $158 −$155 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $199 −$197 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $67 −$66 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $199 +$68 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $78 −$77 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $199 +$78 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$48 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $99 +$41 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$21 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$20 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $9 −$9 -98%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $199 −$196 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $100 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $158 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $199 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $67 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $267 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $199 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $78 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $277 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $199 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $140 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $99 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records