Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208d…6fb3 crypto 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,583 (-25%) realized −$3,583 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%44W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$70
14 days−$120
30 days−$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$3,285
other 14% −$607
politics 4% −$247
sports 2% +$191
tech 1% −$73
world 0% −$57
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.2% -46.8% 29% 29% -27.0%
≤30d 21 -62.4% -66.0% 14% 14% -63.6%
≤90d 28 -62.4% -66.0% 18% 18% -64.7%
all 182 -31.0% -37.5% 24% 21% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 21% -36.1%
10% -43.5% 20% -42.2%
15% -49.0% 16% -47.8%
20% -54.0% 14% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$57 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses44 / 138
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage199d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$83 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$65 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $13 −$5 -43%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $50 −$44 -89%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $155 −$84 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $46 +$12 +26%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $36 −$36 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $56 −$55 -99%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $76 −$48 -63%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $164 −$161 -99%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 28 $26 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 05 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 05 $169 −$64 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 27 $80 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 27 $116 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 30 $60 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 30 $79 −$78 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 26 $28 +$13 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 26 $88 −$87 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 26 $50 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 25 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 25 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 25 $48 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 25 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 25 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 24 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 24 $200 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 24 $213 +$281 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 24 $188 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 24 $152 −$149 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 24 $125 +$278 +222%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $107 +$389 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 806 history records