Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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20 0x208a…ab0f crypto 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$352 (+7%) realized +$406 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%52W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$288
14 days+$288
30 days+$1,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$57
sports 9% +$889
politics 7% −$337
other 7% −$127
finance 1% −$31
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% +$5
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 29% +51.0%
≤30d 71 +14.9% +4.0% 25% 24% +43.4%
≤90d 87 +8.5% -1.9% 24% 23% +34.9%
all 199 -6.5% -15.4% 26% 25% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 25% +0.8%
10% -23.5% 24% -8.9%
15% -30.9% 23% -17.7%
20% -37.7% 23% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$18 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$406
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses52 / 147
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)199 / 211
History coverage135d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 80¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+68%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 24¢ 23¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals No 77¢ 94¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $61 $10 −$51 (-84%)
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? No 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? No 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs Game Hunters - Map 1 Winner Game Hunters 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series #8 Group Stage Game Hunters 38¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$198 +747%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$49 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$37 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$111 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$72 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28? May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 27 $7 +$26 +398%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 27 $30 −$29 -96%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 26 $277 +$962 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 24 $16 +$19 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 23 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 23 $26 +$70 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 23 $52 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 23 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 23 $26 +$81 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 23 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $225 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 45m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 50m
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY No 3¢ $5 55m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 1¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $215 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.59 · official $114.57 · 483 history records