Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2089…88f8 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
other 33% $0
sports 20% −$12
politics 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 38% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 40 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 2% -9.5%
all 41 -5.2% -14.2% 29% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage491d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $45 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $112 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $67 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $27 −$2 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $41 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $45 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $274 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $174 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $250 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $275 $0 +0%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $38 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $17 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records