Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x2082…fdff sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+1%) realized +$168 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%64W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$246
other 18% −$136
crypto 6% −$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 47% -8.7%
≤30d 55 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 47% -8.7%
≤90d 55 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 47% -8.7%
all 149 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 36% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 36% -8.5%
10% -22.6% 27% -17.3%
15% -30.1% 17% -25.3%
20% -36.9% 15% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$21 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$168
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses64 / 85
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage255d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 28¢ 40¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 14¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $100 +$11 +11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 −$49 -49%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$20 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$9 +13%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 +$11 +11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $401 +$7 +2%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $151 −$47 -31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $674 +$251 +37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $45 −$44 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $151 −$130 -86%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $148 +$11 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $150 +$9 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $151 +$19 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$18 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$20 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$60 +196%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $77 +$22 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$37 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $379 +$93 +24%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $67 +$15 +22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $501 +$30 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $301 −$140 -46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $81 +$19 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $42 +$7 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $83 +$14 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $851 +$165 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $10 1m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $111 11m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 39¢ $52 14m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 89¢ $100 41m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $101 41m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $121 42m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $25 42m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $31 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $50 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $49 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 94¢ $299 8h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $98 8h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $200 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 13h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $20 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $105 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $924 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $498 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.01 · official $23.01 (match) · 299 history records