Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2082…0a87 politics 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$17
other 2% $0
sports 2% $0
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 95 -3.6% -12.8% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage698d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $57 $0 +1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $57 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons have the worst record in the NBA? Feb 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Diddy? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Tyreek Hill win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Shedeur Sanders win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will $GOAT be listed first on Coinbase? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Nov 17 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 21h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 26d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 40d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 40d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 48d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $56 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $56 56d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $57 77d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $57 77d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $57 89d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $57 89d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 98d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 99d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 101d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 101d
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $57 103d
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $57 103d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $57 108d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $57 109d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 115d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $57 116d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 118d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 120d
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $56 121d
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $56 123d
Will the Detroit Pistons have the worst record in the NBA? SELL No 100¢ $54 140d
Will the Detroit Pistons have the worst record in the NBA? BUY No 100¢ $54 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records