Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x207e…3499 sports 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 667d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,233 (+19%) realized +$1,233 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%151W / 129L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,262
other 2% −$8
politics 2% −$20
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 43 +1.0% -8.6% 77% 42% -32.0%
all 280 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 42% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 42% +8.2%
10% -20.7% 38% -2.2%
15% -28.4% 35% -11.6%
20% -35.4% 28% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

667d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1,233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses151 / 129
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 283
History coverage667d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in May 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 79,000 on April 22, 8PM ET? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 19 $63 −$63 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 19 $1 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 +1%
Kings vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5 Apr 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 Apr 16 $17 +$12 +70%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 Apr 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $2 $0 +22%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Apr 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Rangers vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5 Apr 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) Apr 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5 Apr 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Apr 07 $2 +$1 +67%
Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5 Apr 07 $3 +$1 +39%
Canadiens vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5 Apr 07 $5 +$2 +39%
Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 217.5 Apr 02 $1 +$1 +82%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5 Apr 02 $8 +$2 +20%
Spread: Clippers (-10.5) Mar 28 $2 +$2 +75%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5 Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) Mar 27 $2 +$1 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5 Mar 27 $2 +$2 +85%
Stars vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 235.5 Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 Mar 22 $1 $0 +33%
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5) Mar 22 $1 $0 +45%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 22 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Mar 22 $1 +$1 +92%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $4 +$3 +72%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $2 +$3 +133%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 13 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 24d
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $1 48d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May BUY No 100¢ $1 48d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 52d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 53d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin above 79,000 on April 22, 8PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes $63 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 59d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? BUY Up 97¢ $13 60d
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY San Francisco Giants 97¢ $1 60d
Ducks vs. Predators BUY Predators 53¢ $2 62d
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $17 62d
Kings vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 62d
Rangers vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 73¢ $7 64d
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 65d
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 65d
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 66d
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) BUY Blue Jackets 70¢ $3 67d
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 82¢ $3 68d
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 82¢ $2 70d
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 71d
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.65 · official $13.65 (match) · 499 history records