Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x207d…460c weather 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%19W / 7L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$4
weather 7% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
world 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 26 +0.3% -9.3% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses19 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage186d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $187 $187 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $464 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $449 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Mar 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Ma Mar 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? Mar 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of February? Feb 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 27? Feb 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on February Feb 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on Dece Jan 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 43°C or higher on Dece Jan 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Lisa Cook? Jan 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Drin "⁠Makazze⁠" Shaqiri win the HLTV Rookie of the Year award Jan 21 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 21 $22 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 21 $128 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $187 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $792 79d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $793 81d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $680 83d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $681 85d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $543 85d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $544 87d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $502 92d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $502 94d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 100d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $713 101d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 102d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $464 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 104d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 104d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $449 104d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $499 105d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $499 106d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $68 110d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $40 112d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $46 114d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $18 115d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $51 122d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $73 122d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of February? BUY No 100¢ $27 124d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on February BUY No 100¢ $23 125d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 142d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 154d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 154d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $2 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.72 · official $186.72 (match) · 75 history records