Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x207d…43c4 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$85
other 26% −$52
crypto 22% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.7% -23.8% 56% 47% -8.8%
≤30d 32 -15.7% -23.8% 56% 47% -8.8%
≤90d 32 -15.7% -23.8% 56% 47% -8.8%
all 32 -15.7% -23.8% 56% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 47% -8.8%
10% -31.0% 41% -17.5%
15% -37.7% 34% -25.5%
20% -43.8% 25% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 +$12 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $20 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $51 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $20 11h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $30 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $101 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $20 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $3 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.03 · official $99.03 (match) · 78 history records