Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x207d…3a8b other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$11
politics 18% −$3
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
sports 2% +$5
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 +1.2% -8.4% 9% 7% -9.6%
all 102 +1.2% -8.4% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage92d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 51¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $372 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $361 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $238 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $329 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $338 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $234 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $219 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 26 $124 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $325 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $123 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $226 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $115 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $125 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $21 10h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $21 12h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 34h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 37h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $4 44h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 16d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 16d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $27 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.66 · official $104.66 (match) · 318 history records