Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x207b…c5f0
world · 85 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$1,344 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,112 · open +$311
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,721
Realized+$1,112
Unrealized+$311
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses51 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)78 / 85
History coverage137d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 7 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$330
14 days+$394
30 days+$1,013
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 77¢ 80¢ $693 $722 +$29 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 27¢ 46¢ $166 $283 +$117 (+71%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 24¢ 40¢ $142 $234 +$92 (+65%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 36¢ $190 $221 +$32 (+17%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 22¢ $132 $135 +$3 (+2%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $85 $123 +$38 (+44%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $730 +$109 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $220 +$63 +29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $142 +$15 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $104 +$20 +19%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $3,083 +$268 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $377 −$299 -79%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $632 +$259 +41%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $51 −$27 -53%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $237 +$9 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $68 −$17 -25%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $336 −$336 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $395 +$57 +14%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $28 +$26 +93%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 31 $355 +$316 +89%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $234 +$314 +134%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,181 +$382 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $200 +$64 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $72 +$62 +86%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 23 $51 −$6 -12%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 22 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $6 +$5 +96%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $11 +$4 +40%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $119 −$16 -14%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $156 −$156 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $265 +$24 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $175 −$70 -40%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 10 $33 −$5 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $78 −$78 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $18 +$54 +300%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 08 $0 +$2 +400%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 03 $48 +$3 +6%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 02 $71 +$60 +85%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $16 +$2 +11%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 01 $21 +$16 +77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Apr 30 $61 −$27 -43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $161 +$160 +99%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 24 $5 −$1 -17%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $9 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $44 +$19 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$1,304
politics 31% −$167
other 18% +$245
crypto 3% +$30
sports 2% +$10
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 76¢ $152 15m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 74¢ $148 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 77¢ $77 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 79¢ $24 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 79¢ $134 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $80 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 79¢ $158 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 59¢ $12 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $23 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $36 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $80 12h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.4% -17.1% 64% 43% -4.4%
≤30d 33 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 48% +0.5%
≤90d 76 +13.2% +2.5% 67% 46% -0.2%
all 78 +12.9% +2.2% 65% 45% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 45% -0.2%
10% -7.6% 26% -9.8%
15% -16.5% 21% -18.5%
20% -24.7% 14% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,721.48 · official $1,721.48 (match) · 926 history records