Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
20 0x207b…b0ef world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$4
politics 15% +$1
other 14% $0
finance 5% +$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.2% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 +105.3% +85.8% 50% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +97.2% +78.4% 46% 8% -8.8%
all 32 +39.9% +26.6% 56% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.6% 3% -8.8%
10% +14.5% 3% -17.5%
15% +3.4% 3% -25.5%
20% -6.7% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.6 per $1 lost it wins $5.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage452d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $25 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $39 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $88 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $41 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio May 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 05 $14 +$1 +4%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 03 $14 $0 +2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $14 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $44 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $13 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $13 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $22 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $5 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $25 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $39 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.68 · official $34.68 (match) · 86 history records