Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2079…caf3 sports 894 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$631 (+0%) realized +$702 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%867W / 24L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$472
other 8% +$72
politics 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$9
culture 1% +$5
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 68 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 891 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$1,420
Realized+$702
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses867 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)891 / 894
History coverage223d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs MaxPax 99¢ 98¢ $989 $980 −$9 (-1%)
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 3 Winner MaxPax 98¢ 93¢ $197 $185 −$11 (-6%)
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 2 Winner Solar 98¢ 51¢ $105 $55 −$50 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs Cure - Map 4 Winner Jun 12 $69 +$1 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 12 $1,562 +$2 +0%
StarCraft II: herO vs Rogue - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $45 $0 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs Rogue - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $69 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $81 +$1 +1%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Toronto KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs One Coin - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $23 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
StarCraft II: Lambo vs SHIN - Map 2 Winner May 30 $81 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Lambo vs SHIN - Map 1 Winner May 30 $124 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs SHIN - Map 1 Winner May 15 $804 +$16 +2%
StarCraft II: Zoun vs herO - Map 1 Winner May 08 $99 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Zoun vs herO - Map 2 Winner May 08 $99 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs trigger - Map 1 Winner May 03 $104 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Cure vs Bunny - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $1,563 +$30 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $250 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: SYGaming vs ZDC - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $1,055 +$1 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Apr 26 $347 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Vancouver Surge - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $6 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Vancouver Surge - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $195 $0 +0%
Overwatch: The Gatos Guapos vs Rankers (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 1 Gro Apr 24 $520 +$1 +0%
StarCraft II: Solar vs Percival - Map 1 Winner Apr 21 $1,513 +$31 +2%
Honor of Kings: Saigon Phantom vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 21 $144 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: BOX Gaming vs FPT Polytechnic - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $1,055 +$1 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: TNC Pro Team vs Team Falcons PH - Game 1 Win Apr 17 $200 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: TNC Pro Team vs Team Falcons PH - Game 2 Win Apr 17 $321 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs My Queen (BO1) - CN League Kickoff Gr Apr 14 $1,541 +$1 +0%
Game Handicap: SP (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5) Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Team Secret vs Saigon Phantom - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $109 +$1 +1%
Honor of Kings: WST vs SYGaming (BO7) - KPL Growth League Playoffs Apr 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Rocket League: Kaydop Corp vs Vitality - Game 1 Winner Apr 12 $200 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $226 $0 +0%
Valorant: Esprit Shōnen vs Galions - Map 2 Winner Apr 12 $749 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $46 +$1 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $109 +$1 +1%
Honor of Kings: GAM Esports vs BOX Gaming (BO5) - Arena of Glory Group Apr 10 $250 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: GAM Esports vs BOX Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $415 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $25 $0 +1%
Rocket League: FUT Esports vs NRG Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Rocket League: FUT Esports vs NRG Esports - Game 4 Winner Apr 06 $114 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Cure vs Rogue - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $50 +$1 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $108 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Team Liquid ID - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $109 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Cure vs Rogue - Map 1 Winner Apr 05 $84 +$1 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs EVOS - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $248 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Bigetron MY by VIT - Game Apr 04 $10 $0 +2%
Overwatch: T1 vs Poker Face - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $10 $0 +2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Weibo Gaming vs Soul's Heart Esport - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 3 Winner BUY MaxPax 99¢ $86 1h
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 1 Winner BUY MaxPax 99¢ $78 1h
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY MaxPax 99¢ $652 1h
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY MaxPax 99¢ $221 1h
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY MaxPax 98¢ $117 1h
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 3 Winner BUY MaxPax 98¢ $111 1h
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 2 Winner BUY Solar 98¢ $105 2h
StarCraft II: Solar vs MaxPax - Map 1 Winner BUY MaxPax 99¢ $120 2h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP BUY Selangor Red Giants 100¢ $198 13d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP BUY Selangor Red Giants 100¢ $1,365 13d
StarCraft II: herO vs Cure - Map 4 Winner BUY Cure 99¢ $69 13d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $81 13d
StarCraft II: herO vs Rogue - Map 2 Winner BUY herO 99¢ $45 13d
StarCraft II: herO vs Rogue - Map 1 Winner BUY herO 99¢ $69 13d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Toronto KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY Paris Gentle Mates 99¢ $28 13d
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs One Coin - Game 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $23 14d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 1 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 99¢ $5 14d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 98¢ $1 14d
StarCraft II: Lambo vs SHIN - Map 2 Winner BUY Lambo 99¢ $81 21d
StarCraft II: Lambo vs SHIN - Map 1 Winner BUY Lambo 99¢ $124 21d
StarCraft II: herO vs SHIN - Map 1 Winner BUY herO 98¢ $804 36d
StarCraft II: Zoun vs herO - Map 2 Winner BUY herO 99¢ $99 44d
StarCraft II: Zoun vs herO - Map 1 Winner BUY Zoun 99¢ $99 44d
StarCraft II: herO vs trigger - Map 1 Winner BUY trigger 99¢ $104 48d
StarCraft II: Cure vs Bunny - Map 1 Winner BUY Cure 98¢ $1,563 51d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 54d
Honor of Kings: SYGaming vs ZDC - Game 1 Winner BUY SYGaming 100¢ $1,055 55d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Miami Heretics 100¢ $347 55d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Vancouver Surge - Game 2 Winner BUY Riyadh Falcons 99¢ $6 56d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Vancouver Surge - Game 1 Winner BUY Vancouver Surge 100¢ $190 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,420.49 · official $1,381.49 · 2191 history records