Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2077…a095 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$22 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$132
14 days−$98
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$97
other 29% −$199
crypto 5% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.5% -24.4% 29% 26% -2.2%
≤30d 73 -17.7% -25.6% 32% 25% -10.7%
≤90d 73 -17.7% -25.6% 32% 25% -10.7%
all 73 -17.7% -25.6% 32% 25% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 25% -10.7%
10% -32.7% 19% -19.3%
15% -39.2% 18% -27.1%
20% -45.1% 16% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$19 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 50
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage25d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $54 $50 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 +$45 +441%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $11 −$10 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $79 −$67 -85%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $33 −$6 -19%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $26 −$5 -21%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $64 −$1 -2%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $33 +$18 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $17 +$14 +83%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 +$111 +109%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$51 +101%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $175 +$15 +9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $238 +$34 +14%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $147 −$6 -4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $280 +$56 +20%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$2 -17%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$23 +223%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Declan Rice: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -14%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$20 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -15%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$31 +205%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$68 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 −$3 -11%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $239 −$90 -38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $55 1h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Rodri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $11 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 54¢ $11 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $47 11h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 28¢ $27 11h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $20 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $32 11h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $33 11h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 84¢ $63 11h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $64 11h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $21 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $20 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $51 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $32 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $33 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $190 27h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $175 28h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 94¢ $109 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $187 33h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $141 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.78 · official $49.78 (match) · 158 history records