Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2075…0ebb sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$190 (-23%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$186
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$164
other 19% −$18
world 6% −$5
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 33% -32.2%
≤30d 19 -12.5% -20.8% 47% 37% -30.4%
≤90d 19 -12.5% -20.8% 47% 37% -30.4%
all 19 -12.5% -20.8% 47% 37% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 37% -30.4%
10% -28.4% 26% -37.1%
15% -35.3% 26% -43.1%
20% -41.7% 16% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $25 −$7 -27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$19 +81%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 20 $50 −$5 -11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$11 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $149 +$9 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$26 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $147 −$146 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -62%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $42 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $8 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $10 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $45 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $50 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $61 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 29h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $77 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $76 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $72 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $73 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $99 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $47 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records