Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
20 0x2070…ed53 other 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-10%) realized −$360 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$60 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,195
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $575 $825 +$250 (+44%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $220 $216 −$4 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $43 +$11 (+34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $185 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 29h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 41h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $39 41h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $221 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,194.55 · official $1,194.75 (match) · 17 history records