Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2070…cdf7 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$25
politics 26% −$12
sports 21% −$8
finance 7% +$1
economics 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$5
culture 3% −$2
tech 3% −$2
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.5% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 133 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage101d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $158 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $416 −$4 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $56 $0 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $172 −$2 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $58 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $399 −$2 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $257 −$2 -1%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $62 −$3 -5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 09 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $51 $0 +1%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $57 −$3 -4%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $108 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $49 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $198 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $40 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 6h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 14h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $50 15h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $51 22h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 29h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 29h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 35h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $67 36h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $67 42h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 42h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 3d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $12 3d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.11 · official $62.11 (match) · 516 history records